Named a Best Book of the Year by Forbes and The EconomistFrom our "greatest living statistical communicator" (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding—and learning to embrace—risk and uncertainty in our daily lives.How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as “highly likely”—how likely is that, really? Whether we’re trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. Luckily for us, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data to resolve the apparently random and decode the many decisions we face with imperfect information. In The Art of Uncertainty, he shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don’t know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variablesIn lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what’s likely to happen in the future. Along the way, we learn how a misinterpretation of a probability contributed to the infamous Bay of Pigs fiasco, why a ship twice the size of the Titanic sank without a trace, and why we can be so confident that no two properly shuffled decks of cards have ever been in the same orderSparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don’t, or simply cannot, know. Read more

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A former Wall Street quant sounds the alarm on Big Data and the mathematical models that threaten to rip apart our social fabric—with a new afterword “A manual for the twenty-first-century citizen . . . relevant and urgent.”—Financial Times NATIONAL BOOK AWARD LONGLIST • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The New York Times Book Review • The Boston Globe • Wired • Fortune • Kirkus Reviews • The Guardian • Nature • On Point We live in the age of the algorithm. Increasingly, the decisions that affect our lives—where we go to school, whether we can get a job or a loan, how much we pay for health insurance—are being made not by humans, but by machines. In theory, this should lead to greater fairness: Everyone is judged according to the same rules. But as mathematician and data scientist Cathy O’Neil reveals, the mathematical models being used today are unregulated and uncontestable, even when they’re wrong. Most troubling, they reinforce discrimination—propping up the lucky, punishing the downtrodden, and undermining our democracy in the process. Welcome to the dark side of Big Data. Read more

Create data stories that lead to smarter, more informed decisions.Raw data doesn’t change minds. But a well-crafted story? That’s what drives action. Whether you’re presenting to executives, persuading clients, or influencing your local community, this book will help you transform numbers into narratives that make an impact.Turn raw numbers into insights people actually understand and care about.Confusing charts and dull reports kill engagement. If your data isn’t clear and compelling, people won’t act on it. Learn how to cut through the noise, craft engaging insights, and create visuals that make complex data instantly understandable.Present data with clarity, accuracy, and impact.Numbers tell you what’s happening, but storytelling explains why it matters. This book bridges the gap between analysis and action, giving you the tools to communicate data in a way that sticks, persuades, and drives real-world change.Master the skills that set top communicators apart. Understand different types of data and their storytelling potential. Collect and preprocess data to ensure accuracy and relevance. Use exploratory analysis to uncover hidden patterns and trends. Apply design principles for effective data visualization. Weave engaging, interactive data stories that drive decision-making. Navigate ethical considerations in data storytelling.Not a chart-maker? No problem.Every day, we’re bombarded with statistics—on the news, in reports, on social media. But how do you know if the data is accurate or being manipulated to push an agenda? This book helps you see through the inside works of data visualization to separate fact from fiction, question the numbers presented to you, and make informed decisions based on truth, not distortion.Use ethical storytelling to build trust and credibility.Albert Rutherford is a bestselling author known for making complex topics accessible. Using studies, academic journals, and his own experience, Rutherford brings a wealth of knowledge and a knack for storytelling, making this book a valuable resource for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills using lessons from statistics, math, game theory, critical and systems thinking, and more. Read more

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year Read more

Now updated with new measurement methods and new examples, How to Measure Anything shows managers how to inform themselves in order to make less risky, more profitable business decisionsThis insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business, government agency or other organization that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI.Adds new measurement methods, showing how they can be applied to a variety of areas such as risk management and customer satisfactionSimplifies overall content while still making the more technical applications available to those readers who want to dig deeperContinues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methodsShows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideasOffers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles"Provides an online database (www.howtomeasureanything.com) of downloadable, practical examples worked out in detailed spreadsheetsWritten by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard—creator of Applied Information Economics—How to Measure Anything, Third Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods. Read more

Become a better decision-maker and more informed consumer using statistics stories. Stories stimulate our brains to enhance retention and understanding by evoking emotions. They provide context, helping us grasp complex concepts through real-life examples and establish a connection with the information.By transforming data into narratives, we recall and thus apply insights more effectively, enhancing our ability to make more informed decisions.What sticks more? Over 44 million Americans collectively owe more than $1.7 trillion in student loan debt (as of 2023).Or… Last year, four out of five graduates entered the job market with a debt larger than an average home’s down payment.You don’t need a college-level class on statistical analysis to understand how statistics affect your life – and how you can make better personal choices if you get to the correct conclusions. This book takes a step-by-step approach to drive home the key takeaways, ensuring you never feel lost.Challenge popular fears – based on the stories data tells.Is it more likely to get bitten by a shark or die in a plane crash? What’s your guess? Find the answer in "Statistics Simplified."Perfect for the Math-Averse.You don’t need to crunch numbers to make statistics valuable. Learn the key takeaways from the most useful statistics stories and apply them in your everyday life to make better decisions.This book is designed for those who aren’t "math people" but are down to learn the moral of a good story. Written in clear, jargon-free language with real-world examples, "Statistics Simplified" will help you grasp world-changing conclusions and apply them to your advantage.Understand popular trends, make informed decisions, and predict outcomes.Albert Rutherford is a bestselling author known for making complex topics accessible. Using studies, academic journals, and his own experience, Rutherford brings a wealth of knowledge and a knack for storytelling, making this book a valuable resource for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills using lessons from statistics.Abby Gordon has an undergraduate degree from Columbia University and graduate degrees from the University of Delaware and Bank Street College of Education. She has spoken at several math education conferences and written on various subjects, including a book on the history of the Horsham Monthly Meeting in Pennsylvania.Uncommon ways to boost your decision-making with statistics:Use inferential statistics to predict your own future behavior.How your child can use descriptive statistics to convince you to get a new puppy.Probability and the story of an MIT group who beat the Casino.Make more accurate predictions – using a formula from genetics.Unlock the power of statistics stories and learn to make better decisions while enjoying your read. Read more

Are you intimidated by statistics? Do you struggle to make sense of the numbers and data that are so prevalent in today's world? If so, you're not alone. Statistics can be a challenging and complex subject, but with the right guidance, you can learn the basics and understand the world through data – without the calculations. That's why I’ve created Statistics for the Rest of Us, the ultimate guide to understanding statistics without complex equations.Statistics is a vital subject to learn.Statistics is used in almost every field and industry imaginable. From healthcare to finance to marketing, statistics are used to make important decisions, identify patterns and trends, and predict future outcomes. Without a basic understanding of statistics, it's easy to be left behind and taken advantage of.If you wonder where should you start, start here.Statistics for the Rest of Us takes a step-by-step approach to teaching the fundamentals of statistics ensuring that you'll never feel lost or overwhelmed. Whether you're a complete beginner or simply need a refresher, this book will guide you through the fundamental concepts in descriptive and inferential statistics. Simple. Easy-to-follow.Avoid getting misled and manipulated. From determining the average age of your customers, the most popular product in your store, or the likelihood of a patient recovering from a particular illness, you can use this statistics manual to seek answers or to interpret the answers of others. The possibilities are endless, and with Statistics for the Rest of Us, you'll be equipped to make sense of it all.This book is for you especially if you're not a math person. Don't worry, this book is designed for the math shy. Written in a clear, jargon-free language and an abundance of real-world examples, Statistics for the Rest of Us will help you understand the concepts and apply them to your advantage.Albert Rutherford is an internationally bestselling author whose writing derives from various sources, such as research, coaching, academic, and real-life experience.What can you expect to learn from Statistics for the Rest of Us? Here's just a taste:The difference between descriptive and inferential statistics, and when to use eachHow to statistics is applied in your everyday lifeThe 5 biggest misuses of statistics and how to spot themHow to interpret and create statistically relevant analysesThe very basics of the Bayesian Theorem – in plain EnglishHow to become highly sensitive to data manipulationUnlock the power of statistics, take your understanding of data to the next level, and start your journey towards statistical mastery. Read more

From “one of the great (greatest?) contemporary popular writers on economics” (Tyler Cowen) comes a smart, lively, and encouraging rethinking of how to use statistics. Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter. As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful. Read more

Written by renowned data science experts Foster Provost and Tom Fawcett, Data Science for Business introduces the fundamental principles of data science, and walks you through the "data-analytic thinking" necessary for extracting useful knowledge and business value from the data you collect. This guide also helps you understand the many data-mining techniques in use today.Based on an MBA course Provost has taught at New York University over the past ten years, Data Science for Business provides examples of real-world business problems to illustrate these principles. You’ll not only learn how to improve communication between business stakeholders and data scientists, but also how participate intelligently in your company’s data science projects. You’ll also discover how to think data-analytically, and fully appreciate how data science methods can support business decision-making.Understand how data science fits in your organization—and how you can use it for competitive advantageTreat data as a business asset that requires careful investment if you’re to gain real valueApproach business problems data-analytically, using the data-mining process to gather good data in the most appropriate wayLearn general concepts for actually extracting knowledge from dataApply data science principles when interviewing data science job candidates Read more

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**WITH UPDATED CHARACTERS - I apologize for the inconvenience caused to my Kindle readers. Not knowing statistics can lead to a loss of money, time, and accurate information.What am I looking at? What do these numbers mean? Why? These are frequent thoughts of those who don’t know much about statistics.“I’m not a number’s person” is not a good excuse to avoid learning the basics of this essential skill. Are you a person who earns money? Do you shop at the supermarket? Do you vote? Do you read the news? I’m sure you do.Learn to make decisions like world leaders do.Do you like to make uninformed, often poor decisions? Are you okay with being manipulated by skewed charts and diagrams? How about being lied to about the effectiveness of a product? I’m sure you don’t.Statistics can help you make exponentially better calls on what to buy, who to listen to, and what to believe.This book offers a detailed, illustrated breakdown of the fundamentals of statistics. Develop and use formal logical thinking abilities to understand the message behind numbers and charts in science, politics, and economy.Sharpen your critical and analytic thinking skills.Know what to look for when analyzing data. Information gets skewed – often unintentionally – because of the mainstream ways of doing statistics that didn’t catch up to big data. Stop staying in the dark. This book shines the light on the most common statistical methods - and their most frequent misuse. This step-by-step guide not only helps you detect what goes wrong in statistics but also educates you on how to utilize invaluable information statistics gets right to your benefit.Avoid making decisions on misleading information.- How to Use Descriptive and Inferential Statistics to Understand the World.- Be Wary of Misleading Charts.- Make Better Decisions Using Probability.- Understand P-Values in Research.- Understand Potential Bias in Studies.Albert Rutherford is the internationally bestselling author of several books on systems thinking, game theory, and mathematical thinking. Jae H. Kim is a freelance writer in econometrics, statistics, and data analysis. Since obtaining his PhD in econometrics in 1997, he has been a professor in major Australian universities until 2022. He has published more than 70 academic articles and book chapters in econometrics, empirical finance, economics, and applied statistics, which have attracted nearly 5000 citations to date.Learn basic statistics and spend your money wisely.Statistics, as a learning tool, can be used or misused. Some will actively lie and mislead with statistics. More often, however, well-meaning people – even professionals - unintentionally report incorrect statistical conclusions. Knowing what errors and mistakes to look for will help you to be in a better position to evaluate the information you have been given. Read more

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How the obsession with quantifying human performance threatens business, medicine, education, government—and the quality of our livesToday, organizations of all kinds are ruled by the belief that the path to success is quantifying human performance, publicizing the results, and dividing up the rewards based on the numbers. But in our zeal to instill the evaluation process with scientific rigor, we've gone from measuring performance to fixating on measuring itself—and this tyranny of metrics now threatens the quality of our organizations and lives. In this brief, accessible, and powerful book, Jerry Muller uncovers the damage metrics are causing and shows how we can begin to fix the problem. Filled with examples from business, medicine, education, government, and other fields, the book explains why paying for measured performance doesn't work, why surgical scorecards may increase deaths, and much more. But Muller also shows that, when used as a complement to judgment based on personal experience, metrics can be beneficial, and he includes an invaluable checklist of when and how to use them. The result is an essential corrective to a harmful trend that increasingly affects us all. Read more

'A wonderful page-turner about a fascinating idea that should affect the way every thinking person thinks about the world around him' Michael LewisIn this brilliant and original book, Malcolm Gladwell explains and analyses the 'tipping point', that magic moment when ideas, trends and social behaviour cross a threshold, tip and spread like wildfire. Taking a look behind the surface of many familiar occurrences in our everyday world, Gladwell explains the fascinating social dynamics that cause rapid change.'Hip and hopeful, THE TIPPING POINT is like the idea it describes: concise, elegant but packed with social power. A book for anyone who cares about how society works and how we can make it better' George Stephanopoulos Read more

Adam Grant’s “8 New Idea Books to Start Spring”Next Big Idea Club's Must-Read Books for May 2024"A wonderful litany of the myriad ways in which we can be deceived, and deceive ourselves."—The Guardian"Entertaining, thorough and full of current examples. . . . It’s excellent." —The Wall Street JournalHow our biases cause us to fall for misinformation—and how to combat it. Our lives are minefields of misinformation. It ripples through our social media feeds, our daily headlines, and the pronouncements of politicians, executives, and authors. Stories, statistics, and studies are everywhere, allowing people to find evidence to support whatever position they want. Many of these sources are flawed, yet by playing on our emotions and preying on our biases, they can gain widespread acceptance, warp our views, and distort our decisions.   In this eye-opening book, renowned economist Alex Edmans teaches us how to separate fact from fiction. Using colorful examples—from a wellness guru’s tragic but fabricated backstory to the blunders that led to the Deepwater Horizon disaster to the diet that ensnared millions yet hastened its founder’s death—Edmans highlights the biases that cause us to mistake statements for facts, facts for data, data for evidence, and evidence for proof.   Armed with the knowledge of what to guard against, he then provides a practical guide to combat this tide of misinformation. Going beyond simply checking the facts and explaining individual statistics, Edmans explores the relationships between statistics—the science of cause and effect—ultimately training us to think smarter, sharper, and more critically. May Contain Lies is an essential read for anyone who wants to make better sense of the world and better decisions. Read more

Driven by concrete computational problems in quantitative finance, this book provides aspiring quant developers with the numerical techniques and programming skills they need. The authors start from scratch, so the reader does not need any previous experience of C++. Beginning with straightforward option pricing on binomial trees, the book gradually progresses towards more advanced topics, including nonlinear solvers, Monte Carlo techniques for path-dependent derivative securities, finite difference methods for partial differential equations, and American option pricing by solving a linear complementarity problem. Further material, including solutions to all exercises and C++ code, is available online. The book is ideal preparation for work as an entry-level quant programmer and it gives readers the confidence to progress to more advanced skill sets involving C++ design patterns as applied in finance. Read more

A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why. Read more

Don't let a fear of numbers hold you back.Today's business environment brings with it an onslaught of data. Now more than ever, managers must know how to tease insight from data--to understand where the numbers come from, make sense of them, and use them to inform tough decisions. How do you get started?Whether you're working with data experts or running your own tests, you'll find answers in the HBR Guide to Data Analytics Basics for Managers. This book describes three key steps in the data analysis process, so you can get the information you need, study the data, and communicate your findings to others.You'll learn how to:Identify the metrics you need to measureRun experiments and A/B testsAsk the right questions of your data expertsUnderstand statistical terms and conceptsCreate effective charts and visualizationsAvoid common mistakes Read more

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